Crypto Panic or Prime Opportunity? Why the Pullback Might Be the Setup for the Final Run

Crypto Panic or Prime Opportunity? Why the Pullback Might Be the Setup for the Final Run

Crypto markets have been gripped by fear recently—with Bitcoin dipping below $113,000, altcoins hemorrhaging up to 30% in a week, and meme coins diving off cliffs. Twitter timelines are flooded with FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt), and sentiment is at a low not seen since early 2024.

But according to top macro analysts like Colin Talks Crypto, this is not the end. In fact, it might just be the shakeout before the euphoric final phase of the bull market.

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🔻 What’s Causing the Panic?

Let’s break it down:

• Bitcoin Dominance: After dipping below the 61% mark (which usually sets altcoins up to fly), dominance has rebounded back above 62%, creating downward pressure on altcoins again.

• Altcoin Season Index: The index has pulled back from a bullish 65 to around 43, indicating we’re slipping back into Bitcoin season.

• Top Meme Coins: Many have seen 20–30% weekly losses.

• Fear and Greed Index: Moved from “greed” back to neutral, reflecting shifting investor sentiment.

But the biggest red flag?

• M2 Money Supply—the strongest macro indicator tied to Bitcoin price—is flashing a massive pullback signal.

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🧠 Why the M2 Money Supply Matters

The M2 money supply represents the total amount of liquid money in the global system—cash, checking, and savings. When it expands, markets typically rise. When it contracts, it signals trouble.

Here’s the key insight: Colin Talks Crypto tracks M2 with a 90-day predictive offset, giving it a 90% correlation with Bitcoin’s price movement. And right now, that model is showing the biggest drop in liquidity since late December 2024—the last time we saw a major crypto pullback.

This doesn’t mean the cycle is over. In fact, according to Colin, this is a sub-peak, not the final top.

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📊 The Colin Talks Crypto Bull Run Index (CBBI)

Colin created the CBBI Index, a tool combining multiple indicators (from on-chain data to sentiment) to estimate where we are in the Bitcoin cycle. Right now, it sits around 77.

Historically:

• In 2014, it hit 99 right at Bitcoin’s peak.

• In 2017, it hit 99 again just as BTC topped at $17,000.

• In 2021, it was 97 when Bitcoin hit $61,000.

Today, at 77, we’re still likely in the final third of the bull cycle, with the biggest gains typically occurring between 80–100 on the CBBI.

So, if history rhymes, the biggest returns are still ahead.

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🧠 What the Smart Money Is Saying

Macro experts like Bob Lucas and Colin Talks Crypto agree:

• Bob Lucas believes we have 2–4 more solid weeks before a local top.

• Colin believes the final top is still 6 months away, likely pushing into early 2026.

Supporting Colin’s thesis:

• Sentiment is still extremely low—no signs of euphoria.

• Most retail investors are still hesitant or completely sidelined.

• Institutions and governments haven’t even fully engaged yet.

• S&P 500 just broke new all-time highs.

• MSTR (MicroStrategy)—a Bitcoin proxy—continues to outperform nearly every asset.

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🛑 Be Cautious of the Cantillon Effect

A core macro idea mentioned in the video is the Cantillon Effect—the idea that those closest to the money printer (governments, mega-corps, banks) benefit the most. As that money slowly trickles down, it gets diluted. The poor and retail investors end up with inflated prices and debased purchasing power.

Ironically, this drives them into riskier assets like Bitcoin as a way to escape financial erosion—further fueling the long-term bullish case for crypto.

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🧠 Key Takeaways

1. This is likely not the final top—more gains are probable in the next 3–6 months.

2. Pullbacks are normal and necessary—they shake out weak hands and reload energy for the next leg up.

3. Altcoins are highly volatile—expect 30–40% swings, but also massive upside in the final euphoric stage.

4. Track M2 supply and CBBI—both offer leading signals that help time the market effectively.

5. Everything is going to zero against Bitcoin—except maybe MicroStrategy.

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📢 Final Thoughts

If you’re panicking right now, you’re probably zoomed in too close. Zoom out.

We’re in the final phase of a four-year cycle, and historically, the biggest returns come in the euphoric final stage—not the quiet middle.

This isn’t financial advice, but if Colin’s models are right (and so far, they’ve been eerily accurate), this recent dip could be one of your last great accumulation opportunities before Bitcoin runs to $150,000+.

So, subscribe, stay informed, and don’t let short-term fear rob you of long-term gains.

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Want to follow these macro signals in real-time?
Check out Colin Talks Crypto on Twitter and his CBBI dashboard to track the bull run index live.

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Author’s Note: The Bitcoin Standard is more than just a phrase—it’s a mindset. Stay patient, zoom out, and prepare for what’s next.