Bitcoin Dominance Is Falling — And That Might Tell Us Exactly When Bitcoin Will Top

Every cycle, traders obsess over Bitcoin dominance. But very few understand the real relationship between dominance, Bitcoin tops, altcoin seasons, and the macro forces that drive the entire crypto market. Today, we break down what most investors don’t see — and why the next major move in Bitcoin dominance could signal the exact moment Bitcoin tops out in this cycle.

The TRUTH About BITCOIN DOMINANCE!!

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Bitcoin Doesn’t Top When Dominance Peaks — It Tops When Dominance Falls

If you go back through the charts, the pattern is surprisingly consistent:

2017 Cycle

Bitcoin dominance peaked near the start of the cycle.
But Bitcoin didn’t top until dominance broke down later that year.

2021 Cycle

In December 2020, BTC.D topped around 72%.
But Bitcoin didn’t top until dominance fell below ~58% in spring 2021.

The pattern?

Bitcoin tops when Bitcoin dominance breaks below medium-term support — not when it peaks.

This matters today because:

🔥 If history repeats, Bitcoin likely tops when BTC dominance hits ~55% in this cycle.

Not when dominance “tops.”
When dominance drops.

That’s the moment liquidity starts rotating into altcoins — the classic blow-off top behavior.

So if you’re a Bitcoin holder hoping for one final blast to $130K–$150K, you actually want Bitcoin dominance to fall.

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Bitcoin Dominance Has Already Broken Its Long-Term Uptrend

Since November 2022, BTC dominance trended steadily upward. But something changed in mid-2025.

Around June–July:

• The long-term rising trendline broke

• BTC.D began forming lower highs

• A medium-term downtrend started forming

That doesn’t guarantee downside, but objectively the structure is weakening. And if dominance continues its slow roll downward, it puts us right on track for the historical “Bitcoin top at 55% dominance” scenario.

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Why Bitcoin Dominance Tracks the U.S. Dollar (DXY) So Closely

This is the part almost no one talks about — and it changes everything.

Over the last two months, BTC dominance has moved nearly tick-for-tick with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 4-hour timeframe.

Why? Because global liquidity drives dominance.

When the dollar rises:

• Dollar-denominated debt becomes harder to service

• Global liquidity tightens

• Risk assets drop

• Altcoins get hit much harder than Bitcoin

• Dominance spikes

When the dollar falls:

• Liquidity expands

• Altcoins outperform

• Bitcoin dominance drops

This creates an extremely useful rule:

If DXY falls, Bitcoin dominance usually falls.
If DXY rises, Bitcoin dominance usually rises.

And if you believe Bitcoin dominance dropping to 55% marks the Bitcoin top…

Then the dollar’s direction will tell you exactly when that moment is coming.

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Government Shutdowns & Dollar Drops: A Hidden Historical Pattern

Historically, the U.S. dollar tends to fall after the U.S. government resolves a shutdown.

• 2013 shutdown: DXY fell sharply once it ended

• 2018–2019 shutdown: Same pattern — large DXY drop afterward

If this pattern repeats, the DXY should drift lower after the 2025 shutdown ending — and that could be the spark that:

• Pushes BTC dominance lower

• Kick-starts a real altcoin rally

• Sets the stage for Bitcoin’s eventual cycle top

Watch the dollar chart closely — it’s telling you more about crypto than any indicator inside TradingView.

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If the Dollar Rises Hard From Here: Everything Crashes

This is the scenario nobody wants, but it must be acknowledged.

If Bitcoin dominance spikes sharply from here, the only way that happens is if:

👉 The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) breaks out and runs higher
👉 Global liquidity drains
👉 Risk assets implode

That means:

• Bitcoin crashes

• Altcoins crash even harder

• Stocks drop

• Metals drop

• Credit tightens

A rising DXY is one of the strongest bear market signals in all macrofinance.

If you’re rooting for Bitcoin dominance to surge higher, understand what you’re actually rooting for:

A liquidity crisis.
A global selloff.
A cycle-ending crash.

This makes the next DXY move absolutely critical.

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ETH/BTC: The Second Indicator That Predicts Bitcoin Dominance

If Bitcoin dominance is an index, then ETH is its largest component. So the ETH/BTC pair is one of the most reliable signals investors have.

✔️ If ETH/BTC bottoms and starts rising → Bitcoin dominance will fall

✔️ If ETH/BTC keeps dropping → Bitcoin dominance will stay high

Right now, ETH/BTC looks like it may be forming a bottom — but confirmation is needed over the next few weeks.

If ETH begins outperforming Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin dominance rolls over

• The rotation into altcoins strengthens

• Bitcoin approaches its cycle top

The two indicators to monitor most closely:

1. DXY (macro liquidity)

2. ETH/BTC (crypto sector rotation)

When they both point down, dominance is about to fall.

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Two Possible Outcomes — And They Are Opposites

Scenario 1: Bitcoin Dominance Falls (Most Likely)

➡️ DXY drops
➡️ Liquidity expands
➡️ ETH/BTC rises
➡️ Bitcoin rallies to a blow-off top
➡️ Dominance hits ~55%
➡️ Bitcoin tops
➡️ Altcoins run 4–6 weeks later
➡️ Full altseason
➡️ Cycle completes

Scenario 2: Bitcoin Dominance Rises (Bearish)

➡️ DXY surges
➡️ Global liquidity collapses
➡️ Bitcoin falls
➡️ Altcoins get obliterated
➡️ Cycle ends early

This is why dominance analysis is so valuable right now — it is literally the roadmap to the top of the cycle.

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The Final, Overlooked Detail: Bitcoin and Altcoins Never Top Together

Everyone assumes BTC and ETH top on the same day.

They don’t.

Historical pattern:

• Bitcoin tops first

• ETH and altcoins top 1 month later

• ETH hits ATH after Bitcoin forms its final lower high

This is why traders get confused at the tail end of a cycle.

Example scenario:

• Bitcoin tops at 140k when dominance hits 55%

• Bitcoin pulls back

• ETH surges and hits its ATH

• Altcoins explode

• 4–6 weeks later the entire market tops out

This is exactly how 2017 and 2021 played out.

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How to Use This Knowledge to Time the End of the Cycle

You don’t need to guess. Just follow the roadmap.

1. Watch Bitcoin Dominance

Target: 55%
That’s historically the signal that Bitcoin has topped.

2. Watch ETH/BTC

If it breaks upward, dominance will fall.

3. Watch the U.S. Dollar (DXY)

If it drops → liquidity is expanding → risk assets fly
If it rises → danger

4. Watch for the altcoin “lag effect”

ETH & alts top 4–6 weeks after Bitcoin.

5. Exit gradually — never all at once.

Smart investors scale out during the euphoric altseason blow-off.