Bitcoin Is Searching for Its Local Bottom — And the Next Major Relief Rally May Be Closer Than You Think

Bitcoin is in the middle of its most important price discovery phase in weeks:
finding its local low before a larger relief rally.

After getting rejected at the yearly open and slipping below $90,000, the market is now trying to form a higher low—a classic early signal that sellers may finally be losing steam. But nothing about this structure is guaranteed, and the path ahead depends on a handful of key levels, liquidity zones, and upcoming macro events.

Here’s the full breakdown of what’s happening under the hood, why this area is so important, and how the next major move may unfold.

THE NEXT BIG MOVE IS LOADING

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Knife Catching, Yearly Open Rejection, and the Fight for a Higher Low

Earlier this week, Bitcoin wicked to sub-$90,000, triggering a wave of liquidations—especially from late longers who were trying to catch the dip. A knife-catching entry around the same region held strong thanks to a break-even stop, and we’ve now seen price attempt to bounce and form a structure of:

• A swing low

• A corrective bounce

• A potential higher low

But here’s the truth:
We don’t have confirmation yet.

To flip short-term sentiment bullish, Bitcoin must reclaim the yearly open and then target Monday’s high. Until that happens, sellers remain in control.

If price gets pushed back under the yearly low again, expect a retest of the weekly low around $90K—a level that has acted as major support multiple times over the last year.

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Why the $90K Region Is the Most Important Support Zone on the Chart

This area isn’t random.
It is a multi-touch historical support zone, held through:

• Late 2024

• Early 2025

• Multiple reaction points before the tariff-driven capitulation event

Traders who were awake during the volatility saw price nuke below this level, then reclaim it quickly—a classic signal of exhaustion from sellers and an early sign of base formation.

If Bitcoin is going to bottom before a larger move upward, this is exactly where it would happen.

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Liquidation Heatmap: The Worst Selling Is Likely Behind Us

Early this week, Bitcoin flushed out a massive cluster of long liquidations.
But here’s the critical shift:

• Downside liquidity still exists,

• But it is far less significant than before.

On the 30-day liquidation map:

• Many traders are still trying to long the bottom

• But the major liquidity magnet is now above price, not below it

That means that once a bottom is confirmed, Bitcoin has plenty of fuel for a sharp relief rally as shorts unwind and liquidity seeks higher prices.

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Weekly Close: The Most Important Signal of the Entire Setup

Here’s the big one…

A second weekly close below $98,000 is historically a major warning sign that a new bear market has begun.

But that does not mean immediate selling is required.

Nothing in crypto moves in a straight line.

Even after confirmation of a bearish macro trend, markets always produce relief rallies:

• Shorts take profits

• Overleveraged bears get squeezed

• Spot buyers step in

• Liquidity rebounds temporarily

A relief rally from this zone is extremely likely—regardless of what happens with the weekly close.

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Early Bottoming Signals Are Finally Appearing

A number of subtle—but important—bottoming signals are starting to show:

1. Binance Spot Depth Delta Turning More Positive

This indicates genuine spot buyers stepping in as price enters a key demand zone.

2. The Coinbase Premium Is Slowly Returning

When Coinbase price trades above Binance, it is a reliable early signal of U.S. institutional buying.

It’s not fully positive yet, but early signs matter.

3. Bitfinex Whales Are Accumulating Longs

Historically, Bitfinex whale long positions spike right at market bottoms.

This accumulation window is currently projected to peak around December 4, aligning perfectly with the broader bottoming thesis.

Whales accumulate when volatility is high and retail is scared.
That’s exactly what we’re seeing now.

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Did We Already Hit the Bottom? Maybe Not Perfectly—But Close.

It’s almost impossible to catch the exact bottom.
But the entry shared in the transcript landed incredibly close to the pico low, with only a small wick coming back down to retest it.

Even if Bitcoin wicks again—possibly toward $88K—the bottoming structure remains intact as long as:

• Higher lows continue forming

• Price reclaims key levels

• Whales keep accumulating

• Spot buyers step in

• Coinbase premium improves

The strongest confirmation signal?

Reclaiming $94,000.

If Bitcoin retakes that zone, the probability that the local bottom is already in increases dramatically.

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Why This Is NOT the Place to Go Max Short

The $88K–$92K zone is:

• Multi-month support

• High-liquidity demand

• A whale accumulation zone

• A liquidation cluster

• A historically significant pivot

Shorts are already beginning to unwind.
This is exactly where shorts historically get trapped—not where you want to open fresh ones.

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Key Macro Events That Could Trigger the Next Relief Rally

• FOMC Minutes (Today)

If the Fed signals even mild softness, markets will likely respond positively.

• Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment (Tomorrow)

Weak labor data = rate cuts priced in faster.

• Existing Home Sales

A weak print here typically signals easing financial conditions.

• Next Week: PPI Month-over-Month

If PPI decelerates, markets could interpret it as the Fed regaining control of inflation.

Positive macro data + key technical bounces =
a powerful relief rally.

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AI Boom, Nvidia Earnings, and Macro Liquidity

Nvidia’s earnings have a 92% probability of beating, according to prediction markets.

If Nvidia beats and macro data comes in soft:

• Tech rallies

• Liquidity sentiment improves

• Bitcoin tends to rebound sharply

In short:
AI strength = risk-on flows = crypto rebound.

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So What Happens Next?

The base case is clear:

A relief rally almost certainly forms from this region.

Key levels to watch:

• $90K weekly low (must hold)

• $94K reclaim (bullish trigger)

• Yearly open (major resistance reclaim)

• $98K weekly close (macro decision point)

From a risk-to-reward standpoint:

• This is a high-probability bottoming zone

• A wick lower (even to $88K) does not invalidate the structure

• Relief rallies from this area are historically explosive

If Bitcoin can close the weekly candle back above $98K, the bullish case strengthens dramatically.

If not, we still get a relief rally—just potentially from a lower high.

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Final Takeaway: Don’t Underestimate This Bottoming Zone

This region has been:

• Multi-touch support

• Whale accumulation

• A spot demand node

• A liquidation cluster

• A psychological pivot

• A structural inflection point

This is exactly where Bitcoin forms its most important local lows before powerful reversals.

The next few days will decide whether this becomes the local bottom…
or just the staging area before the real pump begins.

Either way:

A major relief rally looks extremely likely.